The Role of Scenario Planning in Exploring the Environment Essay

The Role of Scenario Planning in Exploring the Environment - Essay Exampleincrease pressure on the resource, and factors to its proceeds, however, identifies concerns over trends in its future market. These lead to the question, how will the approximative oil attention affect our countrys economy and households livelihoods in the year 2020?Trends in the crude oil perseverance identify many unsureties, both short term and long term. Seasonal weather conditions that affect zipper consumption levels in traveling and heating determines variable necessity levels and prices of crude oil. Adverse weather phenomena such as hurricanes also hamper production process to influence emerge, and subsequently price of crude oil. different factors that influence trends in the industry include resolutions by OPEC, production cost, and technological developments for the industrys applications. increase demand for oil by emerging Asian economies such as China and India is another device drive r to the industrys trend (Nrcan 2010). Similarly, increasing global demand for oil indicates future demand concerns (Opec 2012).The industrys critical uncertainties are demand and adverse weather conditions. Demand has a high capableness level because it dictates the industrys quantity of production and influences prices at given yield capacities. It is however uncertain because of possible changes such as the emergence of expanding economies and development of alternative sources of energy. Adverse weather conditions also dictate the ability to mine crude oil and are highly unpredictable, being natural conditions (Nrcan 2010 Opec 2012).Demand for crude oil identifies two extremes, high demand relative to supply and low demand relative to supply while weather conditions identify existence of adverse weather conditions and favorable weather. The two factors generate quad scenarios as shown below (Burt 2006).A favorable condition will occur under high demand for crude oil and simu ltaneous favorable weather conditions. This would mean an active economy that utilizes energy for production activities and household needs. Availability of oil due to good weather would also mean sufficient supply and consequently favorable prices.